Preparing for an ageing society: Lords Economic Affairs Committee report

Approximate read time: 15 minutes

On 4 September 2026 the House of Lords is scheduled to debate the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee’s report on ‘Preparing for an ageing society’ (19 December 2025, HL Paper 236 of session 2024–26).

1. Key points

• The UK’s society is ageing. The total fertility rate has been below ‘replacement level’ for decades and the number of births is low by historic standards. In the coming decades, there is expected to be a sustained growth in the UK’s older population because of longer life expectancies.
• The combination of these factors is expected to pose a fiscal challenge. On current policy settings, the national debt is expected to rise substantially because of the cost of funding state pensions, healthcare and welfare.
• The House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee argued that the greatest improvement in fiscal outlook would be achieved by increasing workforce participation among people in their mid-50s to mid-60s.
• The committee’s other recommendations included establishing a Cabinet sub-committee on ageing, addressing the gap between life expectancy and healthy life expectancy, educating younger people on the financial costs of retirement, and addressing the crisis in adult social care.
• The Starmer government said it was taking a number of measures to respond to the challenges posed by an ageing society. It said its response focused on three areas: supporting those approaching or above state pension age, preparing younger generations for retirement, and ensuring the system’s sustainability and intergenerational fairness.

2. Background

The UK’s society is ageing. A number of factors are playing a role in driving this overall trend, with low fertility rates leading to a smaller population of young people, and rising life expectancies causing an increase in the size of the older population.

Around 585,000 live births occurred in England and Wales in 2025, a reduction of 1.6% on the previous year.^[1] This was the lowest number of live births recorded since 1977.^[2] In 2024, there were around 46,000 live births in Scotland and 19,000 live births in Northern Ireland.^[3] These figures both indicate the lowest annual total since records began in 1855 and 1887 respectively.^[4]

The total fertility rate (TFR) in England and Wales fell to 1.39 children per woman in 2025, down from 1.41 in 2024.^[5] In Scotland the TFR in 2024 fell to 1.25, the lowest rate since records began in 1951.^[6] Northern Ireland has always had the highest TFR among the UK’s nations but in 2024 its TFR fell to 1.61, its lowest level for at least four decades.^[7]

The number of births per woman in the UK would need to be around 2.08 on average to ensure the long-term “natural” replacement of the population, known as ‘replacement level’ fertility.^[8] The TFR in the UK has been below this level since 1973.^[9]

In the 10 years from mid-2024 to mid-2034, the number of children aged 0 to 15 in the UK is expected to decline by 1.6 million (12.7%), from 12.6 million to 11.0 million.^[10] By mid-2049, this number is projected to fall by a further 2.1 million, a decrease of 16.3% compared to 2024 levels.^[11]

In the coming decades there is also expected to be a sustained growth in the UK’s older population. As of mid-2024, those aged 65 or over comprised 19% of the total population. In 1974, the equivalent figure in England and Wales was 14%.^[12] By 2074, the share of those aged 65 or over is projected to increase further to 27% of the population, with the share of those aged 85 or over expected to more than double.^[13]

In the nearer term, the number of people of pensionable age is projected to increase from 12.4 million in mid-2024 to 14.2 million by mid-2034, an increase of 14.6%.^[14] This projection includes the planned rise in the state pension age (SPA) to 67 years for men and women. By mid-2049, this group is projected to reach 15.3 million, accounting for 23.7% of the population. The proportion of people of pensionable age is projected to increase more than any other life stage group between mid-2024 and mid-2049.^[15]

This means the old-age ‘dependency ratio’—the number of people aged at or above the SPA relative to the number of working people aged between 16 and the SPA—is expected to increase from around 31% in 2024 to over 47% in 2074.^[16]

An increase in the dependency ratio could pose renewed challenges for the funding of state pensions, healthcare and welfare costs paid for by taxation raised on a smaller proportion of the population in employment. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecasts that “on current policy settings” the fiscal challenges posed by an ageing society would push the national debt above 275% of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2074, compared to around 95% now.^[17]

3. Committee findings and recommendations

The House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee launched its inquiry into preparing for an ageing society on 24 March 2025.^[18] It published its report, ‘Preparing for an ageing society’, on 19 December 2025.^[19]

The committee warned that a growing proportion of older people requiring health and social care, alongside a smaller working-age population, could present “growing economic challenges”.^[20] It also stated that these challenges were expected to have “wide-ranging implications for the economy and society”.^[21] It further stated that:

[…] these trends combined will give rise to significant economic and fiscal challenges; absent substantial improvements in productivity growth—to levels not seen in the UK since before the financial crisis—or in workforce participation there will be significant downward pressure on government finances and on living standards, driven by a significant rise in the old-age dependency ratio.^[22]

The committee argued that the government would need to spend more “using a shrinking tax base, with the risk that the long-term debt burden becomes unsustainable”.^[23] It concluded that it was “not convinced” that population ageing was “a priority or being taken at all seriously”, calling on the government to “act now”.

It said that increasing the SPA or relying on higher levels of immigration would not, on their own, resolve these pressures. Instead, it identified increasing workforce participation among people in their mid-50s to mid-60s as providing “the greatest improvement in fiscal outlook”.^[24] It also emphasised that keeping older workers in employment would strengthen the government’s fiscal position and reduce risks of rising pensioner poverty.

The committee’s recommendations included:

• Supporting employment among people in their mid-50s to mid-60s: The committee said the government should outline measures to help older workers remain in, or return to, work and assess their impact on economic activity and public finances. It also called on the government to examine “tax and other incentives—including eliminating any cliff edges in public service pensions”.^[25]
• Establishing a Cabinet sub-committee on ageing: The committee argued that successive governments had “failed to focus on the issues raised by an ageing society” and called for a dedicated Cabinet sub-committee focused on ageing, chaired by the prime minister.^[26]
• Publishing a strategy statement on ageing: The committee said a strategy statement would outline how the government plans to address the challenges of an ageing society “in a cohesive way”.^[27] It said the government should also set out policies to address any increases in pensioner poverty associated with a range of scenarios of increasing life expectancy.^[28]
• Addressing the gap between life expectancy and healthy life expectancy: The committee expressed concern about this “growing gap”, called on the government to set out the policies it is using to reduce this gap and urged the government to explain the outcomes it expects those policies to achieve.^[29]
• Educating younger people on the financial costs of retirement: The committee said the government should consider a campaign to educate younger people given “widespread ignorance of the financial costs of retirement”.^[30] It said the government should also consider whether the financial industry is “suitably organised to provide for the population as it ages”.
• Urgently addressing the “crisis” in adult social care: The committee said this crisis “remains a scandal” and the reality of an ageing population is likely to require more care workers, meaning fewer workers available for other productive sectors of the economy.^[31]

4. Responses to the committee report

4.1 Government response to the report

The Starmer government published its response to the committee’s report on 18 February 2026.^[32] The government welcomed that people were living longer but said demographic changes would “inevitably bring new pressures, particularly for public services and the public finances, which governments must plan for responsibly”.^[33] It acknowledged these were “challenges faced not only in the UK, but across advanced economies”.

The government said it was responding to these pressures by focusing on three areas:

• Supporting those approaching, or above, SPA: It committed “to ensuring that older people live with dignity and security” and said it was maintaining the state pension triple-lock for the duration of the current parliament, describing it as “one of the most generous state pension uprating mechanisms in the world”.^[34] It also highlighted the independent commission into adult social care led by Baroness Casey of Blackstock (Crossbench), arguing that it “forms part of our critical first steps towards delivering a national care service”.^[35]
• Preparing younger generations for retirement: It recognised the “need to ensure that working people today are able to achieve good retirement outcomes in the decades ahead” and highlighted the launch of the Pensions Commission led by Baroness Drake (Labour), Sir Ian Cheshire and Professor Nick Pearce to examine longer-term issues relating to pension “adequacy, fairness, and sustainability”.^[36] The government also said that it was “prioritising measures to support long-term growth”, including planning reforms, the Planning and Infrastructure Bill (now the Planning and Infrastructure Act 2025), development of the Oxford to Cambridge growth corridor, and support for the expansion of Heathrow Airport.
• Ensuring the system’s sustainability and intergenerational fairness: The government said that the independent SPA review led by Dr Suzy Morrissey would “inform future decisions about how long people spend in work and in retirement as life expectancy continues to rise”.^[37]

The government also addressed the committee’s specific recommendations:

• Employment among people in their mid-50s to mid-60s: The government reaffirmed its ambition for an employment rate of 80%, stating that funding for employment support would increase to more than £3.75bn per year by 2028/29.^[38] It highlighted targeted Jobcentre support for older jobseekers, including work-coach assistance and the “midlife MOT” programme, allowing individuals to review finances, health and skills. It also noted that 56,000 people aged 50 and over had started sector-based work academy programmes.^[39]
• Cabinet sub-committee on ageing: The government said that it was committed to having “the right structures” in place and highlighted the creation of a “growth and living standards committee” to consider issues related to economic growth and living standards.^[40]
• Strategy statement on ageing: The government said it already takes a “strategic and cross-cutting approach” to ageing, with relevant policies incorporated across employment, health and social care, and pensions strategies.^[41] It noted that the Pensions Commission’s terms of reference specifically included considerations of “pensioner adequacy and how to improve future retirement outcomes”.^[42]
• Gap between life expectancy and healthy life expectancy: The government acknowledged “significant health inequalities”, describing life expectancy and healthy life expectancy as “varying widely across and between communities”.^[43] It reaffirmed its commitment to “halving the gap in healthy life expectancy between the richest and poorest” and highlighted the ‘10 year health plan’, stating that addressing health inequality was a “core focus” of the plan.^[44]
• Educating younger people on the financial costs of retirement: The government noted that, as part of its ‘financial inclusion strategy’, financial education would become compulsory in primary schools in England and there would be a “renewed emphasis on financial education in secondary schools”.^[45] It said it had “developed a new targeted support regime” for the financial industry that would enable authorised firms to suggest appropriate products or courses of action to consumers based on their “broad financial situation”.^[46]
• Adult social care: The government recognised that adult social care presented “a significant long-term fiscal and social challenge across the western world”.^[47] It noted Baroness Casey’s commission into adult social care and said it was “already putting the core foundations of a National Care Service in place”.

The government’s response was published under the Starmer government, but Prime Minister Andy Burnham has committed to retaining the state pension triple-lock and has said he is willing use his “political capital” to address the issue of adult social care.^[48] He said the current social care system was “broken” and he wanted it to “operate on the NHS principle” that it should be free at the point of use.^[49]

4.2 Other responses

Following the publication of the committee’s report, the International Longevity Centre, a thinktank focused on the impact of longevity on society, urged the government to ensure that its response matched “the seriousness of the committee’s diagnosis”.^[50] It said ageing was “an urgent economic and social reality”:

We need bold, long-term action, not short-term sticking plasters. Without decisive leadership, the UK risks a vicious cycle of poorer health, lower employment, rising care costs and weaker growth.^[51]

An article in Forbes argued that the committee’s conclusions offered a “valuable case study for governments, business leaders and institutions grappling with similar demographic realities”.^[52]

Following the government’s response, the Centre for Ageing Better, a centre focused on ageing and demographic change, said the government’s response was “a significant missed opportunity” that reflected a “general lack of ambition”.^[53] It said most of the initiatives cited by the government “are not designed with the needs and experiences of older workers in mind”.

5. Read more

• QSD on ‘Declining birth rates’, HL Hansard, 4 June 2026, cols 973–87
• House of Lords Library, ‘Declining birth rates and population ageing: Impact and government response’, 1 June 2026
• House of Commons Health and Social Care Committee, ‘Healthy ageing: Physical activity in an ageing society’, 22 May 2026, HC 1180 of session 2024–26
• House of Commons Library, ‘Ageing community and end of life care’, 27 October 2025
• House of Commons Library, ‘The implications of population ageing for social policy’, 16 September 2025
• House of Commons Library, ‘The UK’s changing population’,16 July 2024
• Department of Health and Social Care, ‘Chief medical officer’s annual report 2023: Health in an ageing society’, 10 November 2023

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Image by Centre for Ageing Better on Unsplash