Table of contents
Approximate read time: 20 minutes
This article has been written ahead of the 17 October 2024 House of Lords debate on the “impact of conflict, extreme poverty and climate-related emergencies globally; and of the progress towards achieving the UN sustainable development goals”. The debate is being sponsored by Lord McConnell of Glenscorrodale (Labour), a former first minister of Scotland and the prime minister’s special representative for peace building under the last Labour government.
It focuses on the sustainable development goals related to conflict, poverty and climate, as well as further commentary on these areas. It also highlights the current government’s commitments in these areas.
1. UN sustainable development goals and conflict, poverty and climate
1.1 Overview
The UN sustainable development goals (SDGs) are a set of 17 goals agreed in 2015 applying to all UN member states.[1] They were adopted as part of a UN general assembly resolution titled ‘Transforming our world: The 2030 agenda for sustainable development’.[2] The SDGs are intended to be met by 2030, and each goal has targets/indicators attached to it. The goals cover issues such as poverty, equality, peace, the environment, living standards, employment, health and education.
Goals and targets linked to poverty, climate and conflict include:
Ending poverty (goal 1)
Targets include:[3]
- by 2030, eradicate extreme poverty for all people everywhere, currently measured as people living on less than $2.15 per person per day at 2017 purchasing power parity[4]
- by 2030, build the resilience of the poor and those in vulnerable situations and reduce their exposure and vulnerability to climate-related extreme events and other economic, social and environmental shocks and disasters
- ensure significant mobilisation of resources from a variety of sources, including through enhanced development cooperation, in order to provide adequate and predictable means for developing countries, in particular least developed countries, to implement programmes and policies to end poverty in all its dimensions
End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture (goal 2)
Targets include:[5]
- by 2030, end all forms of malnutrition, including achieving, by 2025, the internationally agreed targets on stunting and wasting in children under five years of age, and address the nutritional needs of adolescent girls, pregnant and lactating women and older persons
- by 2030, ensure sustainable food production systems and implement resilient agricultural practices that increase productivity and production, that help maintain ecosystems, that strengthen capacity for adaptation to climate change, extreme weather, drought, flooding and other disasters and that progressively improve land and soil quality
Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts (goal 13)
Targets include:[6]
- strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters in all countries
- integrate climate change measures into national policies, strategies and planning
- implement the commitment undertaken by developed-country parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change to a goal of mobilising jointly $100bn annually by 2020 from all sources to address the needs of developing countries in the context of meaningful mitigation actions and transparency on implementation and fully operationalise the green climate fund through its capitalisation as soon as possible
- promote mechanisms for raising capacity for effective climate change-related planning and management in least developed countries and small island developing states, including focusing on women, youth and local and marginalised communities
Promote peaceful and inclusive societies for sustainable development, provide access to justice for all and build effective, accountable and inclusive institutions at all levels (goal 16)
Targets include:[7]
- significantly reduce all forms of violence and related death rates everywhere
- end abuse, exploitation, trafficking and all forms of violence against and torture of children
- promote the rule of law at the national and international levels and ensure equal access to justice for all
A full list of the goals and targets can be found on the United Nations webpage ‘The 17 goals’.
1.2 Progress on achieving the sustainable development goals
The United Nations publishes an annual report on progress towards achieving the SDGs.
The latest report, published in June 2024, described the current status of progress against the SDGs as “severely off track”.[8] Providing an overview in the report’s introduction, Li Junhua, under-secretary-general for economic and social affairs, highlighted global conflicts, climate shocks, economic turmoil and the Covid-19 pandemic as issues impacting progress. He wrote:
The ‘Sustainable development goals report 2024’ reveals that progress has ground to a halt or been reversed across multiple fronts, despite reaffirmed pledges. The lingering impacts of Covid-19, compounded by conflicts, climate shocks and economic turmoil, have aggravated existing inequalities. An additional 23 million people were pushed into extreme poverty and over 100 million more suffered from hunger in 2022 compared to 2019. While some health targets improved, overall global health progress has decelerated alarmingly since 2015. The Covid-19 pandemic has undone nearly 10 years of progress on life expectancy. Education, the bedrock of sustainable development, remains gravely threatened as many countries see declines in student math and reading skills, jeopardizing core competencies that will determine future prosperity.[9]
He then detailed how a lack of progress against the goals was being felt across the world, stating:
Around the world, wars are upending millions of lives, driving the highest number of refugees (37.4 million) and forcibly displaced people (nearly 120 million) ever recorded. Civilian casualties in armed conflicts rose by 72% between 2022 and 2023, the highest spike since the adoption of the 2030 agenda for sustainable development in 2015. In 2023, 4 in 10 civilians killed in conflicts were women and 3 in 10 were children.
The cumulative impact of multiple environmental crises is threatening the foundations of planetary ecosystems. In 2023, the world experienced the warmest year on record. For the first time, global temperatures were dangerously close to the 1.5°C lower limit of the Paris Agreement.[10] Global greenhouse gas emissions [GHGs] and atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide reached new records yet again in 2022, with no signs of slowing in 2023.
Developing and vulnerable countries face vast development challenges. Per capita growth in gross domestic product in half the world’s most vulnerable countries is now slower than in advanced economies for the first time this century. This trajectory threatens to reverse a long-term trend towards more income equality among countries. Furthermore, after a decade of rapid debt accumulation, the external debt stock in low- and middle-income countries remains at unprecedentedly high levels.[11]
However, Li Junhua did refer to “encouraging advancements”. For example, he noted that increased access to treatment for AIDS had reduced deaths by around 20.8 million over the last three decades and that evidence showed increasing parity for girls in education across most regions. He also highlighted increased internet access and the benefits of technology, including artificial intelligence, for employment opportunities. Mr Li called on countries to work together to tackle the challenges of conflict, climate change and economic difficulties, where progress had been slower. He said:
The world must now confront head on the multiple crises threatening sustainable development, marshalling the determination, ingenuity and resources that such high stakes demand. To get the SDGs back on track, one foremost priority for the global community is to rally all stakeholders to end the conflicts causing unimaginable suffering and misery globally. Sustainable development is simply not possible without peace.
Additionally, wealthy economies need to unlock greater financing for vulnerable countries, and developing countries must gain a more equitable role in global economic governance and the international financial system.
In all countries, doubling down to pursue a just climate transition is crucial to addressing the triple planetary crisis of climate change, air pollution and biodiversity loss while reorienting economies towards more sustainable growth.[12]
The report then provided assessments of progress and recommendations for each SDG. For the ones set out in section 1.1 of this briefing above, it raised matters including:
Ending poverty (goal 1)
The report noted that the Covid-19 pandemic and other global shocks had set back efforts to eradicate extreme poverty. It stated:
The global extreme poverty rate increased in 2020 for the first time in decades, setting back progress by three years. Since then, recovery has been uneven, with low-income countries lagging behind. By 2030, 590 million people may still live in extreme poverty if current trends persist. Without a substantial acceleration in poverty reduction, fewer than 3 in 10 countries are expected to halve national poverty by 2030.[13]
It also highlighted the impact of climate change in hindering poverty reduction, and that climate disasters were pushing millions of households into poverty.
The report called for a “wide-ranging approach” to tackle the issue. It called for the combining of social protection systems, inclusive economic policies, investment in human capital, policies focused on addressing inequality and climate resilience, and international cooperation.
End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture (goal 2)
Similarly to the issues raised surrounding poverty, the report said that the Covid-19 pandemic had exacerbated global hunger and food insecurity. It noted that progress on alleviating these issues had not recovered in the years since. It stated:
In 2023, about 733 million people faced hunger, and 2.33 billion people experienced moderate to severe food insecurity. Despite progress, 148 million children under age five suffered from stunting in 2022. If current trends persist, one in five children under age five will be affected by stunting in 2030.[14]
The report said that in 2020 almost 60% of countries faced “moderately to abnormally high food prices” due to issues caused by conflicts (for example, their impact on supply chains).
The report called for “intensified efforts” to move towards more resilient, equitable and sustainable food systems. It also emphasised the need to improve diet and food hygiene to meet the target of halving the number of children suffering from chronic undernutrition.
Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts (goal 13)
The report stated that “climate records were shattered in 2023”.[15] It noted that rising temperatures and GHG emissions, high fossil fuel subsidies and the impact of more extreme weather events were affecting lives and communities.
The report said that the global community was now at a “critical juncture”. It reiterated the need to reduce GHG emissions drastically by 2030 and achieve net zero by 2050. The report called on:
All countries [to] urgently speed up economy-wide, low-carbon transformations to avoid escalating economic and social costs. The upcoming 2025 cycle of nationally determined contributions presents a chance for ambitious climate action plans that drive economic and social progress. These must have increased ambition to close implementation gaps, cover entire economies and all greenhouse gases, and align with the target of limiting global temperature rise to no more than 1.5°C.[16]
Promote peaceful and inclusive societies for sustainable development, provide access to justice for all and build effective, accountable and inclusive institutions at all levels (goal 16)
The report reiterated the historically high numbers of forcibly displaced people (120 million in May 2024) and the 72% increase in human casualties due to conflict from 2022 to 2023. It said that an increase in conflicts, along with the prevalence of violent organised crimes around the world, caused “immense human suffering” and hampered sustainable development.[17]
It said that all SDGs are reliant on peace and preventing violent conflicts. It also said that “urgent action is needed to combat corruption and organised crime, strengthen the rule of law and access to justice, build effective and inclusive governance institutions, and protect rights and fundamental freedoms”.
2. Commentary and further reading material
2.1 Prevalence and impact of global conflicts
Both the Global Peace Index (published by the Sydney-based Institute for Economics and Peace) and the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO) state that the number of conflicts in the world is at its highest since the end of the second world war.[18] Commenting on this further, the PRIO stated that “the past three years were the most violent in the last three decades”. It estimated around 122,000 battle deaths in 2023.
The PRIO explained that much of the increase was driven by three conflicts: civil war in Ethiopia’s Tigray region, the continuing Russian invasion of Ukraine and hostilities in Gaza. It stated:
Africa remained the region with the most state-based conflicts per year (28), followed by Asia (17), the Middle East (10), Europe (3) and the Americas (1). The number of conflicts in Africa nearly doubled compared with 10 years ago, from 15 in 2013. In the past three years, Africa has seen more than 330,000 battle-related deaths.
The continued fall in the number of conflicts in the Middle East reversed, with an increase from eight to 10 from 2022 to 2023. In 2022, slightly more than 5,000 battle-related deaths were recorded in the Middle East, the lowest since 2011. However, in 2023 the number was back up at almost 26,000. It is worth noting that almost 23,000 of these were registered in Israel and Palestine. This shows that while violence in the Middle East continues, it is now driven by a different conflict than previously.[19]
Similarly, in an article published in May 2024 the World Bank highlighted the spike in violent conflict in many regions since 2010 and the negative impact this has had on efforts to combat extreme poverty.[20] It predicted that by 2030 nearly 60% of the world’s extreme poor would live in countries affected by conflict, fragility or/and violence (FCV). It estimated that around 324 million extremely poor people live in 33 countries classified as fragile and conflict affected. The World Bank also said that severe food insecurity, which it anticipated would affect over 956 million people by 2028, was twice as prevalent in FCV-affected countries. It said that conflict was one of the biggest drivers of food insecurity.
In addition, the World Bank said that forced displacement was a “developing world crisis”, which needed to be addressed through collective action. It estimated that:
- at mid-2023, 110 million people were forcibly displaced as a result of persecution, conflict, violence or human rights violations
- about 75% of 36.4 million refugees were hosted in low and middle-income countries
- 66% of refugees have been displaced for at least five years
- 52% of refugees worldwide originate from just three countries—Afghanistan, Syria and Ukraine[21]
The UN’s ‘Global humanitarian overview 2024’ also noted the increase in civilian casualties of conflicts in recent years. It said that:
In 2022, the United Nations recorded at least 16,988 civilian deaths across 12 armed conflicts, a 53% increase compared with 2021. And those with specific needs—older persons, persons with disabilities, minority groups, children, among others—suffered the most.[22]
The following websites track the development of individual global conflicts:
- Council on Foreign Relations, ‘Global conflict tracker’, accessed 7 October 2024
- International Crisis Group, ‘Crisiswatch’, last updated September 2024
2.2 Extreme poverty around the world
The World Bank currently measures “extreme poverty” as affecting those living on less than $2.15 a day using 2017 prices.[23]
The World Bank estimates that around 700 million people currently live in extreme poverty, with most of those affected living in parts of sub-Saharan Africa, fragile and conflict-affected areas, and rural areas.[24] It said that progress on extreme poverty had stalled since 2015 after decades of progress. It highlighted global economic issues, the Covid-19 pandemic and other global shocks as key factors. It also noted the impact of conflict and climate change on eradicating poverty. On the latter point, it stated:
Climate change is hindering poverty reduction and is a major threat going forward. The lives and livelihoods of poor people are the most vulnerable to climate-related risks. Millions of households are pushed into, or trapped in, poverty by natural disasters every year. Higher temperatures are already reducing productivity in Africa and Latin America, and will further depress economic growth, especially in the world’s poorest regions.[25]
Outlining measures that may help to tackle extreme poverty, the World Bank identified the importance of employment opportunities and wellbeing, including equal access to healthcare, education and basic infrastructure. It concluded:
Policymakers must intensify efforts to grow their economies in a way that creates high quality jobs and employment, while protecting the most vulnerable. Jobs and employment are the surest way to reduce poverty and inequality. Impact is further multiplied in communities and across generations by empowering women and girls, and young people.[26]
Read more:
- House of Commons International Development Committee, ‘Extreme poverty and the sustainable development goals’, HC 147 of session 2022–23, 13 December 2022; and Government response, 6 March 2023
- Our World in Data, ‘Poverty’, accessed 7 October 2024
2.3 Climate-related emergencies and mitigations
The UN’s ‘Global humanitarian overview 2024’ (GHO) stated that climate-related disasters are rising sharply. It noted that 2023 was the hottest year on record, and there have been “concurrent climate-linked disasters around the world, from drought in the Horn of Africa, a record-breaking cyclone devastating Malawi, Mozambique and Madagascar, catastrophic wildfires in Canada, floods in Libya and China, and heatwaves across North America, Europe and China”.[27] It highlighted estimates that, as of 15 November 2023, there had been 249 climate- and weather-related disasters affecting over 44 million people, resulting in at least 18,000 deaths.
It said that these climate-related disasters were exacerbating humanitarian difficulties, increasing risks of conflict, food insecurity, displacements and amplifying inequality and vulnerabilities. For example, it said that, by the end of 2022, there were 8.7 million people who were “displaced within their own countries due to climate and natural disasters—a 45% increase compared to the previous year”.[28] It also stated that those most vulnerable, particularly women and girls, were most susceptible to the climate crisis.
Analysing information set out in the EU’s INFORM climate change risk index, the paper considered how the situation could worsen:
- Crisis risks will increase. Under a pessimistic scenario, the number of countries classified as having ‘high’ or ‘very high’ crisis risk will increase from 36 at present to 52 by 2050. The number of people living in ‘very high’ crisis risk countries will roughly triple from 580 million to 1.5 billion.
- Lower income countries will be worst affected. The countries likely to be hit hardest are in western, southern and eastern Africa.
- Increases in drought will be the most important driver of increasing risk. By 2050, more than 1.6 billion people—4 times more than today—will be exposed to severe and extreme droughts. This will include almost 20% of the African population.[29]
Looking ahead, the GHO stressed the need for increased global investment to combat the challenge:
Avoiding the worst impacts of climate change could require $4.3tn a year by 2030 and will only escalate the more the Earth continues to warm. Without additional climate financing to help spur adaptation and mitigation efforts worldwide—particularly in those places where vulnerability is high—the climate crisis will continue being a humanitarian crisis.[30]
Discussing funding further, it noted the targeted funding of the UN’s Central Emergency Response Fund (CERF) and Country-Based Pooled Funds (CBPFs) to help address the humanitarian impacts of climate shocks and reduce climate-induced vulnerability. It also highlighted that a new climate action account was announced at the COP28 summit, intended to attract new and additional financing to CERF.[31]
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) 2023 synthesis report said that GHG emissions were continuing to increase and that climate change was already impacting nature and people. Regarding climate change’s impact on people, it noted:[32]
- increased food and water insecurity due to warming and changes in precipitation patterns
- adverse effects on human physical and mental health
- climate change was contributing to humanitarian crises
- economic impacts affecting livelihoods (for example, through damage to climate exposed industries such as farming)
- disproportionate impacts on the world’s most vulnerable people
In terms of efforts to combat the challenges arising from climate change, the IPCC said that both adaptation and mitigation efforts were lagging. For example, it said that adaptation efforts faced barriers in some sectors and regions. There was also insufficient funding to cope with the challenge, particularly in developing countries. On mitigation, although the IPCC reported increasing policies across countries to address the issue (such as policies to limit GHGs), there were gaps in implementation:
There are gaps between projected emissions from implemented policies and those from nationally defined contributions, and finance flows fall short of the levels needed to meet climate goals across all sectors and regions.[33]
The IPCC argued that continued GHG emissions would lead to increased climate change risks, including higher impacts on people and the environment and the risk of a greater number of irreversible or abrupt effects. It said that achieving net zero CO2 emissions was the key to limiting global warming.
The IPCC said that “deep, rapid and sustained mitigation and accelerated implementation of adaptation” would reduce projected losses and damages for humans and ecosystems and deliver benefits to air quality and health.[34] Such rapid actions would require high investment and potentially disruptive changes, which it hoped could be lessened by supportive policies. However, it argued that “feasible, effective, and low-cost options for mitigation and adaptation are already available”, although it noted differences across systems and regions.
Turning to the impact on people and communities, the IPCC report said that “accelerated and equitable action” was critical to sustainable development.[35] It also said that “prioritising equity, climate justice, social justice, inclusion and just transition processes could enable adaptation and ambitious mitigation actions and climate resilient development”. It said outcomes were enhanced by increased support to those with the highest vulnerability to climatic hazards and that “integrating climate adaptation into social protection programs improves resilience”.
To achieve these changes, the IPCC stressed the importance of political commitment, including laws, policies, access to finance and cooperation across levels of government. It also highlighted “finance, technology and international cooperation as critical enablers for accelerated climate action”.[36]
Read more:
House of Lords Library, ‘UK contribution to international development: Mitigating the impact of climate change on developing nations’, 22 December 2023
- House of Commons Library, ‘COP28: The 2023 United Nations Climate Change Conference’, 10 November 2023
3. UK government policy
In its general election manifesto, Labour described a “darkening global landscape” that required a “strong and connected Britain”.[37] It noted increasing war and violence, technological change and the climate crisis as challenges linked to this.
Labour committed to working closely with allies and multilateral institutions, including the EU, United States and NATO, to help address the threats the world faced. It also pledged continued support for Ukraine and said it would run a strategic defence review to assess the threats the UK faced.[38]
The manifesto also said a Labour government would look to “rebuild Britain’s reputation on international development with a new approach based on genuine respect and partnership with the global south to support our common interests”.[39] The party added that it would set a new mission statement for the UK’s development work to “create a world free from poverty on a liveable planet” and restore development spending at 0.7% of gross national income (GNI) “as soon as fiscal circumstances allow”.
On climate change, Labour said it would work with international partners on climate action, “especially those at the forefront of the climate crisis, including Pakistan and Bangladesh, and the COP30 hosts, Brazil”.[40] It also pledged to create a new “clean power alliance” to accelerate the climate transition, enhance clean energy supply chains and lower energy bills for UK consumers. It has since introduced the Great British Energy Bill, which would set up Great British Energy (GBE). GBE would be a publicly owned energy company, which Labour intends to drive the deployment of low-carbon energy technologies.
The government is conducting a strategic defence review, which it expects to report in 2025. It identified global instability and climate change as key factors behind running the review. It has also launched reviews to examine the UK’s global impact, maximise the UK’s combined diplomatic and development expertise in its international development work and support economic capability in diplomacy.[41]
Further information can be found in the following Lords Library briefings:
House of Lords Library, ‘Strategic defence review’, 2 October 2024
- House of Lords Library, ‘King’s Speech 2024: Foreign affairs and international development’, 12 July 2024
Cover image by CHUTTERSNAP on Unsplash
References
- United Nations, ‘The 17 goals’, accessed 7 October 2024. Return to text
- United Nations, ‘Resolution adopted by the general assembly on 25 September 2015’, 21 October 2015. Return to text
- United Nations, ‘End poverty in all its forms everywhere’, accessed 7 October 2024. Return to text
- This represents an uprating from an original level of $1.25 a day: United Nations, ‘Goal 1: End poverty in all its forms everywhere’, accessed 9 October 2024. Return to text
- United Nations, ‘End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture’, accessed 7 October 2024. Return to text
- United Nations, ‘Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts’, accessed 7 October 2024. Return to text
- United Nations, ‘Promote peaceful and inclusive societies for sustainable development, provide access to justice for all and build effective, accountable and inclusive institutions at all levels’, accessed 7 October 2024. Return to text
- United Nations, ‘Sustainable development goals report 2024’, 28 June 2024, p 4. Return to text
- As above, p 3. Return to text
- See: United Nations, ‘Paris Agreement’, accessed 7 October 2024. Return to text
- United Nations, ‘Sustainable development goals report 2024’, 28 June 2024, p 3. Return to text
- As above. Return to text
- As above, p 8. Return to text
- As above, p 10. Return to text
- As above, p 34. Return to text
- As above, p 34. Return to text
- As above, p 40. Return to text
- Institute for Economics and Peace, ‘Global Peace Index 2024’, June 2024; and Peace Research Institute Oslo, ‘New data shows record number of armed conflicts’, 10 June 2024. Return to text
- Peace Research Institute Oslo, ‘New data shows record number of armed conflicts’, 10 June 2024. Return to text
- World Bank, ‘Fragility, conflict and violence’, 24 May 2024. Return to text
- As above. Return to text
- Humanitarian Action, ‘Global humanitarian overview 2024: New and resurging conflicts deepen humanitarian needs worldwide’, 8 December 2023. Return to text
- World Bank, ‘Measuring poverty’, 14 December 2023. Return to text
- World Bank, ‘Poverty’, 2 April 2024. Return to text
- As above. Return to text
- As above. Return to text
- Humanitarian Action, ‘Global humanitarian overview 2024: The spiralling climate crisis is intensifying needs and vulnerabilities’, 8 December 2023. Return to text
- As above. Return to text
- As above. Return to text
- As above. Return to text
- United Nations, ‘Deputy relief chief launches new climate action account’, 3 December 2023. Return to text
- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, ‘Climate change 2023: Synthesis report’, March 2023, pp 50–51. Return to text
- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, ‘AR6 synthesis report: Headline statements’, March 2023. Return to text
- As above. Return to text
- As above. Return to text
- As above. Return to text
- Labour Party, ‘Labour Party manifesto 2024’, June 2024, p 116. Return to text
- As above, p 117. Return to text
- As above, pp 124–5. Return to text
- As above, p 123. Return to text
- Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office, ‘Foreign secretary launches expert reviews to strengthen UK’s global impact and expertise’, 9 September 2024. Return to text