
Table of contents
Approximate read time: 15 minutes
On 30 January 2025, the House of Lords is scheduled to consider the following question for short debate:
Baroness Jones of Moulsecoomb (Green Party) to ask His Majesty’s Government what are the main factors that have led to decades of low levels of rape cases being prosecuted, and continue to prevent such prosecutions, and what steps are they taking to resolve this.
1. Rape prevalence and prosecutions
The Sexual Offences Act 2003 defines rape as occurring when a person intentionally penetrates the vagina, anus or mouth of another person with their penis, the other person does not consent to the penetration, and they do not reasonably believe that the other person consents.
Interpreting statistics concerning rape can be complex. Increased numbers of rape recorded by the police may indicate an increase in the incidence of rape but may also indicate more people are reporting it. The percentage of cases charged, prosecuted or convicted may decrease, but the absolute number of charges, prosecutions or convictions may increase.
1.1 Statistics on the levels of rape
In the year ending June 2024, approximately 36% (69,184 offences) of all sexual offences recorded by the police were rape offences. This was a 2% increase compared with the previous year (67,903 offences).[1]
However, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) states that data from the Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW) is a more reliable measure of trends in sexual assault and rape than police figures for recorded crime.[2] The ONS said that “trends in police recorded sexual offences should be interpreted with caution, as improvements in recording practices and increased reporting by victims have contributed to increases in recent years”.[3]
Data taken from the CSEW for the years ending March 2017 and March 2020 combined showed that fewer than one in six victims (16%) of sexual assault by rape or penetration (including attempts) had reported the assault to the police.[4] The ONS found that for those victims that told someone about the abuse, but did not report it to the police, the most common reasons given were embarrassment (40%), they did not think the police could help (38%) and they thought it would be humiliating (34%). A quarter of victims also thought the police would not believe them.
CSEW figures estimate that in the year ending March 2024, 4.1% of people aged 16 and over in England and Wales had experienced rape, including attempts, once or more since the age of 16.[5] This equates to approximately 2 million people.[6] Prevalence for female victims was higher, with it experienced by 7.8% of women and 0.4% of men. Figures on the prevalence of rape excluding attempted rape were 6.6% for women and 0.2% for men.
The survey also estimated that 0.4% of women were the victims of rape or attempted rape in the year to March 2024, with the figure 0.3% when excluding attempted rape. Figures for men were suppressed due to disclosure restraints. The CSEW estimates an increase in sexual assault more broadly in the last 10 years. It estimated 2.6% of people aged 16 to 59 years had experienced sexual assault (including attempted offences) in the year ending March 2024 compared with 1.5% in the year ending March 2014.[7]
1.2 Rape prosecutions
Home Office statistics for the year ending March 2024 indicated that the proportion of rape offences assigned a charge/summons outcome was 2.6%, this was an increase from 2.1% for the year ending March 2023.[8] This was based on its analysis of the March data as at July 2023 and July 2024.
The Home Office has stressed that this figure is likely to increase and does not present a complete picture of police performance. It cites the proportion of prosecutions for the year ending in March 2023, which increased from 2.1% to 3.9% between the publication of the data in July 2023 and subsequent publication in July 2024.[9] One cause of this is the outcomes of some cases, especially those recorded towards the end of the financial year, may subsequently be revised once investigations have been completed.
The 3.9% of cases assigned a charge/summons for the year ending March 2023 is similar to previous years. For example, it stood at 3.5% for the year ending March 2021, 3.2% for the year ending March 2020, and 3.5% for the year ending March 2019.[10]
Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) figures show an increase in referrals of rape flagged cases by the police between 2023/24 and 2022/23. There were 7,501 referrals from the police to the CPS in the financial year 2023/24, 28.6% higher than in 2022/23.[11] Rape flagged case data includes all cases where an allegation of rape has been made, regardless of the final offence.
There was also an increase in referrals for adult rape cases. In the year 2023/24 there were 5,755 adult rape flagged referrals from the police to the CPS, 33.2% higher than in 2022/23. Adult rape flagged cases are identified through the application of a rape flag and the absence of a child abuse flag on CPS systems.[12]
In addition, there has been an increase in charging and prosecutions. In adult rape cases in the year 2023/24, the CPS charged 2,572 suspects, an increase of 34.4% on the 2022/23 figure of 1,914. CPS figures show that in 2023/24 there were 2,283 prosecutions, 51.9% higher than in 2022/23.[13] While the conviction rate decreased, the volume of convictions increased. Overall, the conviction rate in 2023/24 was 53.4%, 1.6 percentage points lower than in 2022/23. In 2023/24 there were 1,220 convictions, 47.7% higher than in 2022/23.[14]
The latest figures available for adult rape, for July to September 2024, show an increase in the number of suspects charged and prosecutions completed compared to previous months. The number of suspects charged increased by 15.6%, from 681 in April to June 2024 to 787 in July to September 2024. Completed prosecutions increased by 10.9%, from 622 in April to June 2024 to 690 in July to September 2024.
However, the figures also showed an increase in what the CPS called “victim attrition”; prosecutions which were stopped because the victim no longer supported or was unable to support conviction. In July to September 2024 the figures showed that, after a defendant was charged, 77 prosecutions were stopped because the victim no longer supported or was unable to support the prosecution. This was an increase of 24.2% on the April to June 2024 number of 62. The conviction rate also reduced to 49.1%, from 51.3% in the previous quarter. However, conviction volumes increased by 6.3% in the latest quarter, from 319 to 339.[15]
The percentage of victims in rape cases who no longer support police action is notably higher than for other types of crimes. Table 1 shows how this impacts the different stages of the criminal justice system. The highest percentage of investigations being closed because the victim no longer supports police action can be seen in the period between reporting the crime to the police and the police charging an offender.
Crime recorded to police decision: Investigations closed because the victim does not support police action (%) | Police referral to prosecution by CPS: Cases stopped after a defendant has been charged because a victim no longer supports the prosecution (%) | Charge to case completion in court: Cases in which the victim or witness no longer supports the prosecution on the day of trial (%) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
All crime | Adult rape | All crime | Adult rape | All crime | Adult rape | |
April to June 2024 | 26 | 58 | 15 | 20 | 2.2 | 0.6 |
(HM Government, ‘Criminal justice system delivery data dashboard: Overview’, accessed 22 January 2025)
2. Increasing rape prosecutions
Concern regarding rape prosecutions and convictions is longstanding. In November 2020, the report ‘The decriminalisation of rape: Why the justice system is failing rape survivors and what needs to change’ was published. The report was produced by a number of organisations, including the Centre for Women’s Justice and the End Violence against Women Coalition. It argued that rape and sexual abuse had effectively become decriminalised as prosecutions and convictions of rape “have dropped to the lowest since records began”.[16] The report pointed to a number of issues it said were causing this, including the adversarial court system and cuts to police funding.
More recently, in March 2023, Rape Crisis England and Wales published ‘Breaking point: The re-traumatisation of rape and sexual abuse survivors in the crown courts backlog’. The report drew attention to the substantial backlog of rape cases in the courts and the impact of the delay on victims and survivors, commenting:
We see how the protracted wait leads to deteriorating mental wellbeing, with several of the survivors having shared that they tried to end their own lives—sometimes multiple times—because they felt that the waiting would never end and they could simply no longer cope.[17]
The report’s recommendations included priority listing and guaranteed fixtures for all rape and sexual offence cases, clear and coordinated communication with victims and survivors, and specialist sexual offence courts.[18] Table 2 shows that in April to June 2024 a rape victim waited on average over 10 months before police charged an offender.
Average days taken for police to charge an offender | Average days from police referring case to Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) and CPS authorising charge | Charge to case completion in court | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
All victim- based crime | Adult rape | All crime | Adult rape | All crime | Adult rape | |
April to June 2024 | 39 | 317 | 46 | 130 | 262 | 393 |
(HM Government, ‘Criminal justice system delivery data dashboard: Overview’, accessed 22 January 2025)
The Home Office has emphasised that the varying length of time between reporting and charge/summons for different sorts of crime is impacted by factors such as the complexity of the case, the nature of the offence, differing police priorities, and the different challenges of gathering evidence:
[…] some crimes, such as shoplifting offences, the police may have apprehended the offender at the time the crime came to their attention, making a formal or informal criminal justice sanction much easier to achieve. Similarly, for an offence where substantial forensic evidence exists, it will be easier to proceed to a charge than for one where such evidence does not exist. The willingness of victims or witnesses to engage with the police can also vary by type of offence and the relationship between the victim and the offender.
These factors may also subsequently impact on the length of time needed to complete an investigation and on the distribution of outcomes. For example, a fairly large proportion of sexual offences recorded in a year will remain under investigation in the subsequent year. Just over a quarter (26.6%) of sexual offences recorded in the year ending March 2024 had not yet been assigned an outcome at the end of the year (similar to last year, at 26.2%). Where investigations into sexual offences are closed, around half will be closed due to evidential difficulties (47.6% for the year ending March 2024 and 48.9% for the previous year). This reflects challenges associated with investigating such crimes, such as those related to evidence and/or support of the victim.[19]
2.1 End to end review of rape and the criminal justice system
In March 2019, the Conservative government established the ‘End-to-end review of the criminal justice system response to rape’. The final report of the review was published in June 2021.[20]
The review found that while the prevalence of rape and sexual violence had not materially changed in the previous five years, there had been a sharp decrease in prosecutions since 2016/17. Noting that the figures for prosecuting rape cases had always been “worryingly low”, it concluded “the criminal justice system is failing victims of rape and sexual assault”.[21] It said:
Our research found that the reasons for the decline in cases reaching court are complex and wide-ranging, including an increase in personal digital data being requested, delays in investigative processes, strained relationships between different parts of the criminal justice system, a lack of specialist resources and inconsistent support to victims.[22]
The review included government commitments to return the number of rape cases reaching court back to 2016 levels, ensure victims had access to quality support and improve timeliness of cases at each stage of the criminal justice process.[23] Regular progress reports were published following the recommendations; the latest available is the ‘Rape review progress report: Winter 2024’, published in February 2024.
2.2 House of Commons Home Affairs Committee
In 2022, the House of Commons Home Affairs Committee conducted an inquiry into the decline in rape prosecutions and the role of the police, the CPS and the courts in the reporting, investigation, and prosecution of rape cases. It concluded: “we are clear that the criminal justice system must do better in protecting and supporting those who are affected by rape, and in trying and convicting those who are responsible”.[24]
While the committee welcomed the rape review, it criticised the ambition of the government’s aim to return the number of court cases to 2016 levels. The committee argued that while that would be “a step in the right direction”, it would not be “a success in and of itself” because, “even in 2016, criminal justice outcomes for rape were viewed as poor”.[25] The report highlighted the “long delays” in the progression of cases and the experiences of survivors of rape going through the criminal justice system following sexual violence who “felt they were being investigated rather than the suspect”.[26]. However, the committee praised Operation Soteria, a new operating model for how the police and the CPS handle rape cases, which it believed had “enormous potential if it is rolled out with sufficient support”.[27] It also called for a number of additional measures. These included specialist police rape teams across all police forces and the prioritisation of the provision of independent legal advice to those who report rape.
3. Labour government proposals
The 2024 Labour general election manifesto described prosecution rates for rape as “shamefully low” and pledged “tougher enforcement and protection”.[28] It stated that the most harmful and prolific offenders would be “relentlessly targeted, using tactics normally reserved for terrorists and organised crime”. In addition, Labour pledged to fast-track rape cases with specialist courts at every crown court location in England and Wales. The manifesto also committed to specialist rape and sexual offences teams in every police force.
The proposals to fast-track rape cases through the use of specialist courts were included in the 2024 King’s Speech.[29] In January 2025, asked about the planned timetable for the specialist courts, the government reiterated its commitment to the pledge and explained:
The fast-tracking of rape cases has dependencies with, and impacts on, the rest of the criminal justice system, including the wider crown court caseload and the capacity of the rape and serious sexual offences specialist legal workforce. We are carefully considering how best to deliver this. We plan to work closely with the judiciary and will be able to say more in due course.[30]
The government has also announced plans to roll out free, independent legal advocates for victims and survivors of adult rape from 2025. It said the advocates would ensure victims “have support to enforce their legal rights, for example in relation to use of their personal records during an investigation or in court”.[31] The government has argued that this would reduce the number of victims dropping out of the system.[32] It has also reaffirmed its intention to introduce specialist rape and sexual offences teams in every police force.[33]
In addition, in November 2024, the prime minister confirmed that he would make spiking a specific criminal offence.[34]
4. Read more
- House of Commons Library, ‘Tackling violence against women and girls’, 7 January 2025
- Parliamentary Office for Science and Technology, ‘Women’s experience of crime and the criminal justice system’, 19 November 2024
- HM Government, ‘Rape review progress report’, February 2024
- House of Commons Home Affairs Committee, ‘Investigation and prosecution of rape’, 12 April 2022, HC 193 of session 2021–22; and ‘Government response’, 25 July 2022
Cover image by Michael D Beckwith, CC0, via Wikimedia Commons.
References
- Office for National Statistics, ‘Crime in England and Wales: Year ending June 2024’, 24 October 2024, section 9. Return to text
- As above. Return to text
- As above. Return to text
- Office for National Statistics, ‘Nature of sexual assault by rape or penetration, England and Wales: Year ending March 2020’, 1 March 2021, section 2. Assault by penetration is defined in the Sexual Offences Act 2003 as occurring when a person intentionally penetrates the vagina or anus of another person with a part of his body or anything else, the penetration is sexual, the other person does not consent to the penetration, and they do not reasonably believe that the other person consents. Return to text
- Office for National Statistics, ‘Crime in England and Wales: Annual supplementary tables—table S41’, 24 July 2024. Return to text
- Based on ONS population estimates of population for those aged 16 and over in England and Wales (Office for National Statistics, ‘Estimates of the population of the UK, England, Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland’, 8 October 2024). Return to text
- Office for National Statistics, ‘Crime in England and Wales: Year ending June 2024’, 24 October 2024, section 9. Return to text
- Home Office, ‘Crime outcomes in England and Wales 2023 to 2024’, 24 July 2024. Return to text
- As above. Return to text
- Home Office, ‘Crime outcomes in England and Wales 2021 to 2022’, 21 July 2022. Return to text
- Crown Prosecution Service, ‘CPS data summary: Quarter 4 2023–2024’, 18 July 2024. Return to text
- As above. Return to text
- As above. Return to text
- As above. Return to text
- Crown Prosecution Service, ‘CPS data summary: Quarter 2 2024–25’, accessed 24 January 2025. Return to text
- Centre for Women’s Justice at al, ‘The decriminalisation of rape: Why the justice system is failing rape survivors and what needs to change’, November 2020, p 1. Return to text
- Rape Crisis England and Wales, ‘Breaking point: The re-traumatisation of rape and sexual abuse survivors in the crown courts backlog’, March 2023, p 11. Return to text
- As above, p 12. Return to text
- Home Office, ‘Crime outcomes in England and Wales 2023 to 2024’, 24 July 2024. Return to text
- HM Government, ‘The end-to-end rape review report on findings and actions’, June 2021. Return to text
- As above, pp 3–4. Return to text
- As above. Return to text
- As above, p 9. Return to text
- House of Commons Home Affairs Committee, ‘Investigation and prosecution of rape’, 12 April 2022, HC 193 of session 2021–22, p 3. Return to text
- As above, p 25. Return to text
- As above. Return to text
- As above, p 3. See also: National Police Chiefs’ Council, ‘Operation Soteria: Transforming the investigation of rape’, accessed 24 January 2025. Return to text
- Labour Party, ‘Labour Party manifesto 2024’, June 2024, p 67. Return to text
- Prime Minister’s Office, ‘King’s Speech 2024: Background briefing notes’, 17 July 2024, p 61. Return to text
- House of Commons, ‘Written question: Rape: Crown court (23377)’, 21 January 2025. Return to text
- House of Commons, ‘Written question: Gender based violence (8270)’, 16 October 2024. Return to text
- House of Commons, ‘Written question: Rape: Trials (18285)’, 13 December 2024. Return to text
- HC Hansard, 16 December 2024, col 143. Return to text
- Prime Minister’s Office and Home Office, ‘PM pledges joint action to keep women and girls safe at night’, 24 November 2024. Return to text