
Table of contents
- 1. Reported shortage of broccoli and cauliflower skip to link
- 2. Impact of recent extreme weather patterns in the UK skip to link
- 3. Climate change, agriculture and food production: Risks and opportunities skip to link
- 4. Supporting farmers to adapt: Government policy skip to link
- 5. Read more skip to link
Approximate read time: 15 minutes
On 23 January 2025, the House of Lords is due to debate the following topical question for short debate:
The Lord Bishop of St Albans to ask His Majesty’s Government, following reports that the United Kingdom faces shortages of broccoli and cauliflower this spring, what steps they are taking to support farmers and growers to adapt to climate change.
1. Reported shortage of broccoli and cauliflower
According to one recent report in the Guardian, growers have said broccoli, cauliflower and other brassicas “may be in short supply this spring as the mild autumn and winter has caused the crops to come up early”.[1] The article appeared to be based on comments from Hannah Croft, an agronomist at Riverford, an organic vegetable delivery box company. Ms Croft said that due to heavy autumn rain, Riverford’s suppliers in Spain had suffered quality issues with their winter broccoli. It had also led them to delay planting for their spring crops. Ms Croft also said early crops of UK cauliflower had been lost due to significant rainfall in the autumn, and mild temperatures in the winter had led winter cauliflower to ripen ahead of schedule.
Fresh Direct, a large-scale supplier of fresh fruit and vegetables across the UK, stated in its weekly crop report on 8 January 2025 that it was currently experiencing “no major issues” with brassica supplies.[2] However, it noted that “demand over the festive period, along with the challenges of the recent storms and lower temperatures, which has impacted the crop’s growth, are affecting overall availability”. In the following week’s report, Fresh Direct said “cooler temperatures in Spain and the freezing conditions in the UK are both very challenging for growers, resulting in a tightening of availability as it slows the crop’s growth”.[3]
2. Impact of recent extreme weather patterns in the UK
Growing crops has always been subject to the weather, but recent weather patterns have brought particular challenges to farmers and food producers. Heavy rainfall affected the domestic production of broccoli and other vegetables, including carrots, parsnips, cauliflower and potatoes, in the autumn of 2023.[4] It also prevented farmers in many parts of the UK from planting crops such as potatoes, wheat and vegetables in the key spring season in 2024, and affected the quality of crops already in the ground.[5]
The Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) noted in December 2024 that “weather conditions in recent years have been some of the most extreme on record and have affected domestic [food] production”.[6] Defra reported that following the driest UK summer on record since 1995 in 2002, England had its wettest 18-month period between October 2022 [and] March 2024. For several of the months between October 2023 and March 2024, parts of the UK had monthly rainfall totals that were double 1991 to 2020 monthly averages. Defra said such heavy rainfall had “a devastating and long-term impact on farming, with soil erosion, crop damage and flooding”.[7]
A study by the Met Office and its counterparts in Ireland and the Netherlands found that “human-induced climate change made the heavy storm downpours and total rainfall across the UK and Ireland between October 2023 and March 2024 more frequent and intense”.[8] The Met Office has also indicated that drier summers and milder, wetter winters are likely to become more frequent. It said in 2024 that:
Observations show a clear warming trend for average UK winter temperatures, and this trend is projected to continue in the future due to human induced climate change. This doesn’t mean the UK will no longer see cold spells, like we did [in 2024] during the first half of January, however cold spells are projected to become less frequent and less severe.
Although rainfall observations show large variability in annual seasonal and decadal rainfall, it has generally become wetter, particularly during winter. Climate projections indicate that on average, winters will continue to become wetter and summers drier, though natural variability will mean we continue to see individual years that don’t follow this trend. As our atmosphere warms it can hold more moisture, roughly 7% more per 1°C of warming. This brings a risk of increased frequency and longevity of heavy rainfall events in the future, particularly during winter, if greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise.[9]
3. Climate change, agriculture and food production: Risks and opportunities
The risks posed by climate change to agriculture and food production are assessed as part of the five-yearly climate change risk assessment under the Climate Change Act 2008.[10] As part of this process, the independent Climate Change Committee produces a technical report for the government. The most recent technical report was published in 2021. Its key messages on agriculture and food were:[11]
- Future climatic changes, especially wetter or drier conditions, could significantly impact on UK soil health leading to implications for agricultural productivity.
- Agricultural productivity could be at risk under future climate scenarios. This could be as a direct result of more extreme weather (namely extreme heat, flooding, drought, sea level rise or saline intrusion), or due to a greater number of pests, pathogens and non-native invasive species.
- There could also be some opportunities for UK agriculture under a changing climate should new or alternative species become suitable for the UK, or due to longer growing seasons (if water is not a limiting factor).
- Agricultural land is an important contributor to parts of the UK’s landscape character, meaning that changes to the former could directly affect the latter.
- The future impacts of climate change in the UK and overseas could pose risks to food safety and food security.
Based on the technical report, the Climate Change Committee produced an ‘advice to government’ report as part of the climate change risk assessment process. This highlighted “risks to soil health from increased flooding and drought” and “risks to crops, livestock and commercial stress from multiple climate hazards” as two of the eight priority areas the government should focus on.[12]
Separately, the government also assesses the UK’s food security. This process takes place every three years, as required by the Agriculture Act 2020.[13] Defra published the most recent UK food security report in December 2024. It said extreme weather events were continuing to have “a significant effect on domestic production, particularly arable crops, fruits and vegetables”.[14] It suggested that the impact of increased frequency of such adverse weather events “might pose more of an immediate risk to food production, in comparison to changes in mean climate, since farmers have less time to adapt”.[15]
The report also noted that the impacts of climate change on agriculture and food production might not be evenly felt. For instance, it said that in some cases rising temperatures could present opportunities for growing new crops (such as the expansion of vineyards in the UK) or provide a longer growing season for some crops.[16] On the other hand, hotter, drier summers and warmer, wetter winters could be detrimental to some crops (such as winter wheat).[17] Some changes that are favourable for crop yields might also increase crop pests and diseases. Defra also concluded that the potential impacts of climate change may be regional, with different parts of the UK affected differently by changing weather patterns.[18]
Defra pointed out in the report that there are a variety of evidence gaps that complicate making a full assessment of the risks to the food system from rising temperatures and more frequent extreme weather events.[19] It said this included a lack of research on the projected effects in the UK of climate change on crop yields for different arable crops, on livestock and on domestic fruit and vegetable production.[20]
4. Supporting farmers to adapt: Government policy
4.1 Conservative government
Every five years, the government sets out its plans for adapting to climate change in a national adaptation programme (NAP).[21] The previous, Conservative government published the third NAP (NAP3) in July 2023, setting out plans for 2023 to 2028. On agriculture, NAP3 said the government’s farming policies were intended to “support farmers to become more productive and more profitable” and to “ensure sustainable food production and environmental protection go hand-in-hand”.[22] Government support for farmers and land managers to take adaptation actions would come primarily through environmental land management schemes (ELMS).[23]
ELMS is the main vehicle for providing financial support to farmers, replacing the previous system of direct payments that applied when the UK was part of the EU’s common agricultural policy. The Conservative government committed in 2020 to introducing this new system gradually over seven years.[24] It also committed to maintaining the overall budget for farm support (referred to as the farming budget) for England at £2.4bn per year on average over the course of the 2019–24 parliament. There are three ELM schemes:[25]
- Sustainable farming incentive (SFI): Pays farmers to adopt and maintain sustainable farming practices that can protect and enhance the natural environment alongside food production, and also support farm productivity.
- Countryside stewardship (CS): Pays for more targeted actions relating to specific locations, features and habitats, with an extra incentive through ‘CS plus’ for land managers to join up across local areas to deliver better results.
- Landscape recovery: Pays for bespoke, longer-term, larger-scale projects to enhance the natural environment.
NAP3 said the Conservative government had designed these schemes so they would “incentivise actions in places where they can maximise adaptation benefits, and increase resilience to flooding and drought through nature-based solutions such as natural flood management”.[26] For example, through the SFI, the Conservative government planned to fund improving soil health to help reduce the impact of drought and flooding.[27] It said the countryside stewardship scheme would expand woodland in a way that would reduce flood risk by slowing the flow of water.
As well as ELMS funding, NAP3 also highlighted support available to farmers to improve water sustainability through the water management grant.[28] The water management grant is one type of funding available through the farming investment fund.[29] Agricultural and horticultural businesses in England can apply for funding for projects to improve water sustainability and the environment.
Defra’s guide to NAP3 identified flooding due to more intense rainfall as a “prominent climate risk” which could cause millions of pounds of damage.[30] The Conservative government provided some specific support to farmers impacted by flooding after the heavy rainfalls of early 2024. In April 2024, it opened the farming recovery fund to provide support to farmers who had experienced uninsurable damage to their land due to flooding or extreme rainfall.[31] It offered grants of up to £25,000 to help eligible farmers return their land to the condition it was in prior to the flooding.[32] Around 13,000 farm businesses will receive a one-off payment under this scheme.[33] In May 2024, the Conservative government also announced temporary support for farmers who had been unable to meet their SFI or CS actions due to wet weather.[34] This included temporary adjustments to allow farmers more time to establish or defer some of their SFI or CS activities. Further information about farmers’ role in addressing flooding and the support available to them is set out in the House of Lords Library briefing, ‘Farming and flood prevention’ (4 October 2024).
NAP3 also identified increasing crop and livestock resilience as a climate adaptation for agriculture.[35] The Conservative government said it was reducing the financial and regulatory barriers associated with new technologies such as precision breeding so more resilient varieties of crops and animals could be produced. The Genetic Technology (Precision Breeding) Act 2023 received royal assent in March 2023. The Conservative government said the act would introduce a new regulatory system to facilitate greater research and innovation in precision breeding to produce more resilient crops and animals.[36]
The Conservative government also launched a farming innovation programme in 2021.[37] This enabled farmers and growers to bid for funding in a competitive process. The funding was intended to support innovative projects to “transform productivity and enhance environmental sustainability in England’s agricultural and horticultural sectors”. There have been various rounds of funding under the programme. For instance, in February 2024, 24 projects were awarded a share of £12.2mn for research and development projects to improve environmental resilience.[38]
4.2 Labour government
The Labour government has committed to retaining ELMS as the principal means for providing support to farmers and other landowners in England.[39] In the budget in October 2024, Labour committed £5bn to the farming budget over two years, including £1.8bn for ELMS in 2025/26.[40] It said this would “deliver improvements to food security, biodiversity, carbon emissions, water quality, air quality and flood resilience”. The government said it would work with the farming sector to “continue to roll out, improve and evolve these schemes, to make them work for farming and nature”. The government said in the latest UK food security report in December 2024 that it was “too early to assess the impacts” of ELMS on supporting sustainable farming and renewing nature.[41]
Steve Reed, the secretary of state for environment, food and rural affairs, announced in January 2025 that he would introduce secondary legislation by the end of March 2025 to bring the Genetic Technology (Precision Breeding) Act 2023 into force for plants in England.[42] Mr Reed said this would allow farmers to grow crops that were more resilient to climate change.
Mr Reed also said the government was delivering a “refreshed approach to bolster England’s resilience to flooding and protect crops in the ground”.[43] He said the government was investing £2.4bn to build and maintain flood defences, with a further £50mn for internal drainage boards. He said the Floods Resilience Taskforce would ensure better coordination between the government and frontline agencies. The government was reviewing the existing flood funding formula to “make sure funding goes where it’s most needed”. The government has said further commitments under the farming recovery fund and the rollout of any future schemes for flood damage would depend on the outcome of the spending review, due later in 2025.[44]
Labour also committed in its 2024 general election manifesto to introducing a land use framework.[45] The Conservative government had committed to publishing a land use framework by 2023 which would set out how it would “balance multiple demands on our land including climate change mitigation and adaptation”.[46] However, they did not do so before the general election. For further information about how a land use framework could address land use, food security and climate adaptation, see the Parliamentary Office for Science and Technology briefing, ‘Balancing competing land uses: A multifunctional approach’, 1 November 2024.
5. Read more
- House of Lords Library, ‘Biodiversity loss and climate change: Interdependent global challenges’, 9 January 2025
- Parliamentary Office of Science and Technology, ‘Balancing UK agricultural production and environmental objectives’, 21 November 2024
- House of Lords Library, ‘Farming and flood prevention’, 4 October 2024
- House of Commons Library, ‘New approaches to farm funding in England’, 28 May 2024
- House of Commons Library, ‘Climate change adaptation and resilience in the UK’, 27 March 2024
- House of Lords Library, ‘Environmental land management: Recent changes to the sustainable farming incentive and countryside stewardship schemes’, 18 January 2024
- House of Lords Library, ‘Impact of climate change and biodiversity loss on food security’, 1 September 2022
- Parliamentary Office of Science and Technology, ‘Restoring agricultural soils’, 20 January 2022
Cover image by Neil Webb on Pexels.
References
- Helena Horton, ‘UK faces broccoli and cauliflower shortage this spring’, Guardian, 13 January 2025. Return to text
- Fresh Direct, ‘Crop report: Wednesday 8th January to Wednesday 15th January,’ 8 January 2025. Return to text
- Fresh Direct, ‘Crop report: Wednesday 15th January to Wednesday 22nd January’, 15 January 2025. Return to text
- Daniel Woolfson, ‘Shoppers braced for broccoli shortages after washout October’, Telegraph (£), 7 November 2023; and Cameron Henderson, ‘Why a soggy autumn might need you to rethink your Christmas dinner’, Telegraph (£), 26 November 2023. Return to text
- Helena Horton et al, ‘UK facing food shortages and price rises after extreme weather’, Guardian, 16 April 2024. Return to text
- Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, ‘UK food security report 2024’, 11 December 2024, p 131. Return to text
- Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, ‘Wet weather and temporary adjustments to agri-environment agreements’, 14 May 2024. Return to text
- Met Office, ‘Climate change drives increase in storm rainfall’, 22 May 2024. Return to text
- Met Office, ‘Warmest February on record for England and Wales’, 1 March 2024. Return to text
- Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, ‘What is the UK’s climate change risk assessment (CCRA)?’, 14 September 2022. Return to text
- Climate Change Committee, ‘Agriculture and food sector briefing’, June 2021. Return to text
- Climate Change Committee, ‘Independent assessment of UK climate risk: Advice to government for the UK’s third climate change risk assessment (CCRA3)’, June 2021, pp 17–18. Return to text
- Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, ‘United Kingdom food security report 2024’, 11 December 2024. Return to text
- Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, ‘UK food security report 2024’, 11 December 2024, p 126. Return to text
- As above, p 140. Return to text
- As above, p 21. Return to text
- As above, p 140. Return to text
- As above. Return to text
- As above, p 21. Return to text
- As above, pp 140, 148 and 153. Return to text
- Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, ‘Understanding climate adaptation and the third national adaptation programme (NAP3)’, updated 21 February 2024. Return to text
- HM Government, ‘The third national adaptation programme (NAP3) and the fourth strategy for climate change adaptation reporting’, July 2023, HC 1649 of 2022–23, p 66. Return to text
- As above, p 53. Return to text
- Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, ‘The path to sustainable farming: An agricultural transition plan 2021 to 2024’, 30 November 2020. The seven-year time frame was established in section 4(3) of the Agriculture Act 2020. Return to text
- Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, ‘Environmental land management (ELM) update: How government will pay for land-based environment and climate goods and services’, 21 June 2023. Return to text
- HM Government, ‘The third national adaptation programme (NAP3) and the fourth strategy for climate change adaptation reporting’, July 2023, HC 1649 of 2022–23, p 53. Return to text
- As above, pp 53 and 66–7. Return to text
- As above, p 67. Return to text
- Rural Payments Agency and Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, ‘Farming investment fund (FIF)’, 14 May 2024. Return to text
- Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, ‘Understanding climate adaptation and the third national adaptation programme (NAP3)’, updated 21 February 2024. Return to text
- Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, ‘Government opens fund to support farmers affected by flooding’, 11 April 2024. Return to text
- Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, ‘Farming recovery fund expanded’, 24 May 2024. Return to text
- Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, ‘Our approach to farming recovery payments’, 4 November 2024. Return to text
- Rural Payments Agency, ‘Wet weather: Temporary support for farmers in 2024’, updated 14 October 2024. Return to text
- HM Government, ‘The third national adaptation programme (NAP3) and the fourth strategy for climate change adaptation reporting’, July 2023, HC 1649 of 2022–23, p 66. Return to text
- Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, ‘Genetic Technology Act key tool for UK food security’, 23 March 2023. Return to text
- Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, ‘Farming innovation programme launched to boost the future of farming’, 20 October 2021. Return to text
- Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, ‘Funding available for environmentally resilient farming solutions’, 31 May 2023; and UK Research and Innovation, ‘Funding boosts farm resilience’, 12 February 2024. Return to text
- Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, ‘Government to restore stability for farmers as confidence amongst sector low’, 1 August 2024. Return to text
- House of Commons, ‘Written question: Farmers: Government assistance (17493)’, 10 December 2024. Return to text
- Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, ‘UK food security report 2024’, 11 December 2024, p 127. Return to text
- Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, ‘Steve Reed speech at the 2025 Oxford Farming Conference’, 9 January 2025; and House of Lords, ‘Written question: Genetic Technology (Precision Breeding) Act 2023 (HL3914)’, 14 January 2025. Return to text
- Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, ‘Steve Reed speech at the 2025 Oxford Farming Conference’, 9 January 2025. Return to text
- HL Hansard, 10 October 2024, col 2179. Return to text
- Labour Party, ‘Labour Party manifesto 2024’, June 2024, p 59. Return to text
- HM Government, ‘Environmental improvement plan 2023’, 2023, p 12. Return to text